Our Thoughts on the Collegiate Landscape

Well, it’s been awhile since either of us have posted on WordPress.  We’ve been pretty busy with our lives, but never too far from what the media forces down our throats.  I’m not a fan of the four-letter network or any of their counterparts, but all of the conference shuffling has been heavily on my mind.

Sawdog and I have been discussing the collegiate issues at hand, and I felt moved to write something.  Here is a question and answer session for all who care to read.  Please note that the questions are pretty random, and the answers are only opinions.

1.  What is the future of the SEC Conference for basketball and football?

Well let’s stick to football first here, since it’s football that is driving realignment.  I think the future is what many are expecting–a 16 team league.  I really do think in the end there will be four mega-conferences controlling the majority of the money brought in from college football.  It almost seems unstoppable at this point.  An even more compelling question is this: Could the four mega-conferences (with 64 teams) branch away from NCAA governance and have their own national championship?  I confess I don’t have any insider knowledge on this, but I’ve heard it rumored and it’s something to keep on your radar.  If so, does a school like Notre Dame finally try and join one of these mega-conferences so they are included in the new system??  Hard to claim a national championship if you’re an independent not included in the party…

Along those same lines, basketball could become the same.  Basketball should make enough revenue to keep the same alignment that football drives when it’s all said and done.  That means that if there are four megaconferences made of 64 teams, and the leagues can somehow branch away from NCAA rules, those 64 teams would play each other for the championship.  All speculation, but interesting to think about!

2.  What is the best team to add to the SEC?

Well the best option was Texas A&M, and that already happened.  It made too much sense for both the school and the SEC.  This is a complicated question which requires each of us to understand geopolitics and much more.  For example schools such as Florida, Georgia, Kentucky and South Carolina currently enjoy a revenue and exposure advantage with SEC television contracts over in state rivals Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville and Clemson, respectively.  So as much as you might sit around and dream of the SEC becoming even more competitive with a school like Florida State, Florida has the power to veto their addition into the conference.  And likewise for the other three schools mentioned.  However the current SEC schools will listen to expansion talks if they believe adding a new school from a new television market will bring in more revenue that can be shared for everyone.  So this is why the most likely candidates for addition as the 14th school in the SEC would be Missouri (St Louis TV market) or a school like Virginia Tech (Virginia and Washington DC TV markets).  This week Missouri publicly stated they have no current interest to join the SEC, so expect some heat to pick up in negotiations with a school like Virginia Tech which brings a very nice television market, has a very loyal fanbase and would certainly increase the academic reputation of the SEC.

3.  What is Texas’ future?

Texas is holding a lot of cards these days–a Royal Flush, in fact.  The recent television deal with ESPN called the Longhorn Network has shaken the foundation of college football greatly.  The reality is that Texas is so popular that everybody would love to have a piece of them–ESPN, the Pac-10, the Big-10, etc.  However, what exactly do any new conferences present for Texas what they don’t already have with their ESPN tv deal??  That’s what Texas will want answers to.  It’s understandable that an apathetic football league like the PAC-10 (when compared to the SEC and Big 10, certainly) would want to reach out to Texas and add them into the mix.  It would immediately increase revenue through television deals and make the PAC-10 as formidable a football conference as the SEC and Big-10 (especially if Oklahoma and two others join in).  Texas will want some sort of extra compensation though, understandably.  Texas would be doing a lot more for the PAC-10 then the PAC-10 is doing for Texas.  That’s just how powerful they are financially–now and for the foreseeable future.  Because Texas will most likely draw larger crowds throughout PAC-10 stadiums it’s possible Texas may pitch an idea to the PAC-10 that they should collect a percentage of the revenues that occur in opposing stadiums.  That’s a random idea of the top of my head, but the point still stands: Texas doesn’t want to share revenues equally when they already enjoy the competitive advantage they have through the Longhorn Network.  Any conference that adds Texas will have to concede some additional power to the Longhorns to make it all work.  One factor that could eventually force Texas’ hand to join a conference is this idea of having four 16 team Mega-conferences.  Those 64 teams could consider having their own national championship–admittedly through legalities that are over my head–and you don’t want to be an independent on the outside looking in.  Those are discussions for another day, however.  I think Texas will be content to stay fat and happy on their new Longhorn Network deal while other less fortunate schools jump for greener pastures.  In the end I see Texas in a situation where one of these conferences (PAC-10, Big 10, etc) has 15 teams and only needs one extra team to make it a perfect 16.  That’s when all the cards Texas holds will be most valuable, when a conference knows they can cap their realignment off with some icing and reel in the big fish with a fair deal for both parties.

4.  What is the Big 12’s future?

The Big 12 is hanging on with nine teams, and what was once a league on life support is now a league that is in critical but stable condition.  The loss of Texas and Oklahoma would destroy this league.  There is no way around that.  It is encouraging for the Big 12 that Texas, Oklahoma and Missouri have continued to resist departure in recent weeks.  But make no mistake the longer the Big 12 waits to solidify their standing as a power league, the more likely other leagues will offer a sweet deal that will be hard to pass up.  The Big 12 should be feeling an awful lot of heat right now.  They are geographically surrounded by the Big-10 who has the highest number of college football fans of any league in the nation and thus can afford to be patient and picky with adding stellar teams into the league.  I think the inability to add geographically reasonable teams (because they are already in the Big 10 or SEC nearby) is going to severely limit the Big-12’s status as a conference that can expand and thus the Big 12 will eventually die a slow death.

5.  What is the Big East’s future?

There is no future.  This league as a football conference is over.  In the words of my good friend 49ways “this league is freaking garbage.”  West Virginia tried to join the SEC but the SEC said no.  It’s no wonder Syracuse and Pittsburgh bailed as fast as possible to the ACC.  It’s rumored that the Big 12 may try to absorb what’s left of the Big East after a few more Big East teams (Rutgers and UConn perhaps) are plucked away.  The Big 12 and the Big East are in serious football trouble.  It’s so bad they are in talks to merge together to try and secure and be strong enough to secure a BCS bid.  I see no future for the Big East in football.

6.  Which is the best school to add to the Big East: East Carolina, Navy, Army, or other?

College football drives everything.  It’s the moneymaker.  The Big East is extremely poor from a football perspective.  Seven of the current teams in this league that are basketball powers (Villanova, for example) don’t even compete in football.  If you don’t compete in football you’re league is in trouble.  I really think it is inevitable that the Big East dissolves.  Basketball is not enough.  It’s possible the Big 12 absorbs the remaining Big East football schools, but the Big East adding teams is a complete afterthought at this point.

7.  Is Notre Dame to the ACC a possibility?

I love this question.  I think the crown jewel for the ACC would be Notre Dame, and it’s speculated that Notre Dame would prefer the ACC over the Big 10 if it is forced away from independent status.  Three of the top five Notre Dame television markets are on the east coast: New York, Boston and Philadelphia.  So Notre Dame and the ACC are seeing the same thing: television contracts and television money.  The ACC currently sits at 14 teams with the recent additions of Syracuse and Pittsburgh.  If they want to reach 16 teams they can be selective, and they’ll look to new tv markets and football revenues while trying to maintain strong academics.  I have a gut feeling that we are in fact going to see the ACC work out a deal with Notre Dame.  It won’t make sense geographically, except for the presence of so many ND fans in the large east coast cities.  And that’s what will push this through.  Bold prediction:  The ACC adds Rutgers and Notre Dame as the 15th and 16th teams.

8.  Who else is John Calipari pursuing for 2012?

The entire top 25 recruits in the country.  I don’t worry about Calapari because he’s proven.  He’ll get players and put them in the NBA.

9.  Who will be the leading scorer for Kentucky basketball this season?

I will say Terrance Jones just because he can do so much.  He’ll get opportunities on fast breaks, he’ll get offensive rebounds and putbacks.  And I have no doubt he’s improved his jumper at least a little bit which will help.  I say he edges out Anthony Davis and Doron Lamb, finishing with 17.9 ppg.  There will be plenty of balanced scoring with their ridiculous starting lineup.

10.  What will Kentucky’s final record be in football?

The start to Kentucky’s football season has been a major disappointment.  There is no reason for this team to look like they’ve never practiced together considering the coaching staff remained intact from last year and many of their players are veterans.  There are few positives right now.  The offensive line is healthy for the first time this year, which will help.  And young contributors like RB Josh Clemons have some much needed experience under their belts.  Still it’s asking too much for tremendous improvement.  I’m going to be the optimistic fan and say 5-7 instead of the popular answer of 4-8.  That’s the best I can do right now.

Live Chat: Oklahoma State @ Texas

Texas tries to work in a new point guard and Oklahoma State wants to distance themselves from any bubble discussion.

Live Chat, click here

Ranking next week’s Rivalry Week games

ESPN brings us Rivalry Week next week, the annual week-long event showcasing some of our favorite in-conference showdowns.  Some years the Duke/Carolina tussle is worth the hype, and some years the attention deserves to be squarely on another dynamic rivalry.  Based on what we’ve seen this year, with some additional factors in play, I have decided to rank the following seven ESPN televised rivalry games in order of least intriguing to “can’t miss.”  Really, none are worth missing, but you know what I mean.  Someone has to dwell in the cellar when rankings are involved.

7.) UConn @ Syracuse (Wednesday, 7 pm, ESPN)–This is normally a titanic matchup but UConn’s struggles are well-documented this year.  Two different circumstances would make this much higher on this list.  1.) UConn coach Jim Calhoun back on the sidelines (he might be back, but it’s still unlikely) and 2.) the game being in Storrs, Connecticut instead of Syracuse.  If this were a home game for UConn it would give the casual viewer of this rivalry (myself) more reason to tune in and see if the home crowd could carry UConn to victory.  As it is now though this is all set up for Syracuse to continue their assault on the Big East.

6.) Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (Tuesday, 7 pm, ESPN)–Most people around the country probably don’t realize A.) that the state of Tennessee actually really likes basketball (UT women…) and B.) Vanderbilt, particularly, takes their basketball team seriously.  Vanderbilt is currently tied with Kentucky for 1st place in the East, and Tennessee is just one game back.  While some of the other rivalries on this list are out of state, this rivalry is an intrastate bragging rights battle.  The heat in this rivalry has been cranked up since Bruce Pearl and Kevin Stallings began squaring off against one another.  Let’s see if UT can dust off Memorial’s Magic.

5.) Duke @ North Carolina (Wednesday, 9pm, ESPN)–A Duke or North Carolina fan will probably try to sell you “this is why it’s the best rivalry” no matter what happens in this contest next week.  But on paper here is what this rivalry is this season: A second-tier Duke team facing a below vintage North Carolina team (that was nice on my part).  You will have to watch this game with one earplug in to keep yourself from believing that the winner of this game will use it to fuel a late-season charge towards the national championship.  But, with all my caveats said, this is a rivalry game worth watching to see if a near lifeless UNC squad can play with an intensity that has so far lacked this season.  You can bet the UNC fanbase is hoping this is the game that rallies all their talent.  If Carolina pulls it out in dramatic fashion UNC will remember this game in a way in which Duke views the Jeff Capel memories of 1995–so that in itself creates a nice storyline for the game.

4.) Purdue @ Michigan State (Tuesday, 9pm, ESPN)–Purdue is dominated with experience in the starting lineup, so nerves in hostile territory do not apply here–one reason this should be an excellent game.  The Breslin Center is one of america’s best venues, so the “Izzone” student section will no doubt be rocking.  You have to expect this veteran Purdue squad to be licking their chops to tackle the beast that is Sparty in East Lansing, and thus cut into MSU’s lead in the Big 10 standings.  There is plenty of motivation for Purdue, and time is running out to make a move to the top of the standings.  The one drawback to this game is the potential absence of MSU point guard Kalin Lucas, but news out of Lansing this morning is that his ankle injury is not serious and he may even play this weekend.  That sounds pretty good for his chances to play in this rivalry game Tuesday night.  The Big 10 offers up low-scoring games far too often, but a Purdue/MSU matchup is still very much a marquee attraction.

3.) Kansas @ Texas (Monday, 9pm, ESPN)–Reason #1 to watch this game?  How about because both teams have been ranked #1 this season and both teams have been on the short-list as national championship contenders all season long.  Texas’ recent “slump,” losing three out four games, kept this from being a bit higher.  What Texas team are we going to see?  Still, there is plenty of NBA talent on the floor in this one and if Texas has any hope of winning the Big 12 this is a must win game.  With a Kansas win the Jayhawks will have a stranglehold on the #1 national ranking and make it clear that they are the team to beat in the NCAA tournament.  We should expect to see lots of intensity in this game….from players and fans.

2.)  Tennessee @ Kentucky (College Gameday) (Saturday, 9pm, ESPN)–Kentucky sold out all available tickets for the Gameday event nearly two weeks ago.  Tennessee may not care though.  This is the same program that has finished ahead of Kentucky in the Eastern division for four straight years.  It seems that when you put John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and DeMarcus Cousins on the national stage they do something special.  They play better.  So it will be interesting to see if the highlight reel plays are once again on display when the lights shine bright on Rupp Arena.  You can’t watch Kentucky and not feel like you’re watching a college version of the Laker’s “showtime” era.  At any moment a freakish athletic feat could invade your television screen.  With the division lead possibly on the line, and ghosts of SEC East past in need of slaying, this game should needle past insanity on the crowd decibel meter.

1.)  Villanova @ West Virginia (Monday, 7pm, ESPN)–The first game of the Rivalry Week lineup is my vote for game of the week.  Which is the nation’s best basketball conference?  The Big East.  Which teams sit atop the Big East standings?  Villanova is perfect at 9-0, while West Virginia is 7-2.  If Villanova can keep from being hit with batteries or lead-weighted frisbies, this has all the makings of a great rivalry game.  Seriously WVU fans, control yourselves.  It’s embarassing.  Outside of fan madness and standings within the conference, I am interested in this game for one real reason: just how good is Villanova?  At the midway point of the college season we have identified four teams that would easily warrant the four number one seeds in the NCAA tournament if it started today: Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova and Kentucky.  That really isn’t debatable.  I’ve heard and seen much more about the other three than I have Villanova, who is quietly pasting people while flying at least a little bit under the “stud” radar.  I want to know if the Wildcats can go into the heart of the West Virginia mountains, face an unruly (and semi-moronic) WVU crowd, and come out of the game pooping gold.  We will all have an idea of how lethal Villanova is on Monday night!

Best crowds so far this year

Watching the Alabama/Tennessee game tonight I am reminded that not all crowds are created the same.  I am seeing lots of empties in the lower level, so I hesitate to wonder what the upper level may look like.  49ways is texting me from the Georgia Tech/Clemson game and he reports a similar scene of empty seats with the game already underway.  It’s a reminder that we should be thankful for those nights when you finish watching a game and say “damn, does it get any better than that?!”  Last night’s high octane Kansas State crowd inspired me to blog about the best crowds I’ve seen so far this year.

Texas @ Kansas State–I think anybody who watched this with me knows exactly what I’m talking about.  The only thing missing from the student section were semi-enclosing rails and cell blocks, like the ones used to subdue AC/DC’s fans in the music video for Thunderstruck.  Nothing makes people go completely nuts like the chance to knock off number 1, and I had the distinct feeling from the opening tip that this was the night number one was going down.  There are games where the fans help you win.  And then there are games where the fans won’t let you lose.  Last night the latter crowd showed up.  The “We Own Tex-as!” chant in unison was the icing on the cake!

North Carolina @ Kentucky–There was an understandably nervous, one-foot-in-the-water, how-good-are-these-freshman UK crowd packed in Rupp against the defending champs for what could have been a season-altering win or a another disappointing loss for a fanbase desperately seeking the national spotlight once again.  When John Wall sped up court on a Secretariat-like blitz–and dunked the ball two handed while breaking Larry Drew’s ankles–it was like an entire decade of forgettable tournament basketball was lifted off the foundation of the building.  From that point forward Rupp Arena was the venue it has become renowned for, and the crowd carried the home team on a 28-2 knockout run that the visiting Tarheels would never overcome.  Nothing spells doom for an opponent like 24,500 rabid fans united by a breathtaking display of athleticism.

Kansas @ Tennessee–You can virtually cut and paste my paragraph from the Kansas State/Texas game in this slot.  Again, NOTHING brings out an opposing fanbase like the opportunity to defeat the number one ranked team in the country.  Tennessee fans may have been feeling even more optimistic considering Kansas had struggled to beat Cornell in Lawrence just a few days before.  The real story to this crowd, however, was the belief that gradually mounted through the course of the game when the fans were attune to the fact that their 6 scholarship players and three walk-ons were battling toe-to-toe with the loaded Jayhawks.  Think about that from the Tennessee fan’s perspective.  Not only are you amped up b/c #1 is in town, but now it’s late in the second half and you’re in disbelief that some kid named Skylar McBee is hitting HORSE shots as the shotclock nears zero.  Bedlam is the word to describe these moments.

Kentucky vs Connecticut–If the other games had the feel of the underdog trying to scream their team to victory, this one was more like the buzz you hear during a meaningful heavyweight title fight.  UConn fans consider Madison Square Garden a home away from home.  But because UConn and Kentucky NEVER play each other Connecticut fans could not have known that Kentucky fans consider every neutral venue a home away from home!  One UConn fan said he could not believe the number of Kentucky fans in New York for this game.  With a split crowd the scene was set for one fanbase to upstage the other.  UConn got it started with a Let’s Go U-Conn chant, in which Kentucky replied with an emphatic GO BIG BLUE!  All of this was during the Georgia/St. John’s contest that was taking place prior to the main event.  In typical MSG fashion the game did not disappoint with Kentucky’s star freshman John Wall saving his best for last–an and-1 to seal the victory with seconds remaining.  Every year, early in the season, college basketball fans are treated to a game that makes you say “that was an NCAA tournament game.”  That was this game.

Breakdown: Top 5 Comparisons

In this week’s national team rankings, both the AP Media poll and the Coaches Poll ranked the same five teams 1-5 (in this order): Kansas, Texas, Kentucky, Purdue, Syracuse. All five teams are undefeated. College Courtside was interested in the statistics for each team. Do the stats justify the rankings? Below is a graph with national rankings in several key offensive and defensive team statistics for all five teams. Some key observations for each team below the graph. Team rankings and statistics were taken from ESPN.com and/or SI.com, so data was limited to teams falling in the top 100 nationally. Strength of Schedule (SOS) and RPI were taken from collegerpi.com.

Purdue
Purdue is the only team well outside the Top 20 in FG%. However, they are the only team well inside the top 10 in free throw percentage. Perhaps surprisingly, Purdue ranks 50th nationally in opponents FG percentage. Although #50 is middle of the road compared to the other four teams here, it’s a bit unexpected considering the national praise they receive for team defense.
Why they are ranked #4 in the polls: They bring back a ton of experience; they won on Alabama’s homecourt recently coming back from a 16 point deficit in the second half; they beat Tennessee (UT’s only loss)

The Best Game I’ve Ever Seen

Wow!  What a treat we all got Wednesday night as freshman phenom John Wall led the Kentucky Wildcats to a victory over the ever-tough Connecticut Huskies.  Did it not have the feeling of a late March barn burner?  I told Sawdog, this is why we love this game.  The crowd was electric, the players played with incredible intensity, and it was played at a famed arena – the Mecca of basketball arenas – Madison Square Garden.  This game had so many intangibles that will make it an instant classic between these two powerhouses, and it made me reminisce on the best college basketball game I’ve ever seen: January 16, 2007 – the #23 Texas Longhorns at the #12 Oklahoma State Cowboys.

The game was at the famous Gallagher-Iba Arena whom some regard as one of the best gyms in the country to witness a contest.  It was a capacity crowd, and viewers could feel the buzz in the air emanating through the TV.  Yes, this was Kevin Durant’s freshman season, and man did he make our jaws drop this game.  Aside from his 37 point effort, what makes me remember this game so vividly was Oklahoma State guard Byron Eaton’s 40-foot, one-handed, sideline hurl early in the second half as the shot clock was winding down.  When he made it, the crowd erupted as if the Cowboys had won the national title.  It was amazing!

But on top of that, it took three overtimes to decide the winner, of which the Cowboys were the victors, 105-103.  Throw in Oklahoma State forward Mario Boggan’s heroic, yet unlikely, last second game-winning shot, and what you had was an ESPN Instant Classic.  The game was so intense that Cowboys coach Sean Sutton nearly fainted.  You just hated to see either team lose as players on both sides played their hearts out, and you know they were exhausted.  Four Texas players clocked at least 50 minutes while Oklahoma State had three.  The Cowboys even had to turn to one of their walk-on players to finish out the overtimes since two of their starters fouled out.  Such an awesome game this was!

I probably watch between eight and ten games on television per week, and this game still sticks out in my mind.  I would gladly watch it over and over again.  Sutton is on record saying Durant’s performance was the best he’d ever seen an opposing player have at Gallagher-Iba.  I think the fans who witnessed it will agree with me that it was the best game ever at Gallagher-Iba.

Bracketbuster Game Notes: Baylor at Texas

Checking in tonight on a Big 12 clash between Baylor and Texas.  Baylor has lost 5 consecutive league road games, including losses to lowly Iowa State and Texas Tech.  Texas is coming off a tough loss @ Oklahoma State.  Texas has beaten Baylor 23 consecutive times, but as we college basketball fans know this aint your daddy’s Baylor.  This program has come on in recent years.  This is Texas star A.J. Abrams final home game as a Longhorn.  Lets see if he lights up the place in style.  Here we go:

1st Half action:

–Sloppy play to start the game.  Still 2-0 Texas with 17:24 left.  Baylor has two turnovers.
–Pretty much the worst thing that could happen to Baylor has happened–star guard Curtis Jerrells picks up his second foul at the 17:00 mark. It will be miraculous if a struggling Baylor can hang with Texas on the road with Jerrells on the bench for most of the first half. Lets see how long coach Scott Drew waits to throw Jerrells back in the game…..
–Baylor finally on the board with a free throw with 15:38 left. Score is 6-1 Texas.
–You wonder why Baylor might be struggling after some pre-season hype and then you hear that guard Henry Dugat has missed 18 straight three-pointers…not the reason WHY but certainly a symptom.
–The Baylor guards are picking it up in the absence of Jerrells. That’s two straight attacks on the basket to make it 13-7 Texas. Unfortunately Baylor still isn’t playing defense. 15-7.
–Not quite to the 12:00 mark yet and Jerrells is back in the game…..
–ESPN is counting down the top 30 plays in the last 30 years in college basketball. They are set to announce #9 in just a minute. As a Kentucky fan I would bet my house, car, bank accounts and wife I don’t have that Christian Laettner’s shot to beat Kentucky is #1. For the record, #9 is Kansas guard Mario Chalmers’ dramatic last second game-tying three-pointer to send last year’s championship game against Memphis into overtime. Great stuff.
–Curtis Jerrells has such a pure jumpshot. I could watch this guy play all day. His form is nearly flawless. Right there with Syracuse guard Andy Rautins.
–Baylor has a surplus of left-handers: Jerrells, Kevin Rogers, and Anthony Jones for sure. Maybe more.
–Dogus Balbay of Texas just flew down the court, side-stepped a defender and scored gracefully while off balance. Really quick, really athletic, and really smart play. Very Euro-style basketball move (kid is from Turkey). If Texas gets hot here at the end of the season, or just makes a run in the NCAA tournament, it’s going to be a guy like Balbay with his talent that makes the difference.
–Score is Texas 31, Baylor 20. Baylor 6-21 from the field. They have a bunch of turnovers too.
–Halftime score is Texas 35, Baylor 24. Baylor’s 24 pts is tied for the lowest point total in any first half they’ve had this season.

Kevin Durant Has Jersey Retired

The Texas Longhorns honored standout one-and-done, Kevin Durant, during half time of their victory over in-state rival, Texas Tech, Wednesday night.  He was the 2006-07 Player of the Year as a freshman.  His number 35 jersey now hangs in the rafters of the Frank C. Erwin, Jr., Special Events Center.

During that memorable season for Rick Barnes and Texas fans, Durant averaged 25.8 points per game, 11.1 rebounds per game, and 1.9 steals and blocks per game.  He shot an outstanding 47.3% from the field, 81.6% from the foul line, and 40.4% from downtown.  Among the many awards he earned include National Player of the Year honors from The Associated Press, NABC, USBWA, CBS/Chevrolet and The Sporting News; winner of the Adolph Rupp Trophy, the Naismith Award and the Wooden Award – the first-ever freshman in NCAA history to win any of those awards.