The harsh reality of national interest in college basketball

If you’re like me you watched North Carolina play Kentucky on Saturday and came away with a feeling that you had just witnessed one of the true great non-conference, non-tournament basketball games in recent memory.  For forty minutes the Tarheels and Wildcats lived up to an incredible pre-season hype.  The first half of play saw North Carolina perform nearly flawless offensive execution, which included a heatseeking display of torrid three-point shooting that helped Carolina to a nine point lead nearing halftime.  The younger wildcats scrapped and clawed to within five points by intermission, leaving myself (and perhaps others) with the feeling that Kentucky was pretty darn lucky to be down only five considering the Tarheels hot shooting.  Kentucky immediately cut into the five point halftime deficit in the opening minutes of the second half, only to see North Carolina consistently–as was noted during live play by commentator Clark Kellogg–counterpunch the Wildcats efforts by stretching the lead back out to a couple of baskets.  I could be wrong, but I believe that neither team had a lead larger than five points in the second half.  Kentucky finally grasped control of the game when North Carolina entered a six minute stretch where they struggled to score (beginning around the 10:00 mark or so) while Kentucky shooting guard Doron Lamb hit two clutch 3 pointers, the second of which gave UK their largest second half lead at 69-64.  As you know, the game tightened down the stretch, culminating in a riveting final minute that saw Reggie Bullock of UNC drain a corner 3 ball in transition following a sloppy UK turnover.  Bullock’s three cut the lead to one and ensured a nailbiting finish.  Kentucky freshman point guard Marquis Teague missed the front end of a one-and-one, and with a Carolina rebound the Tarheels had the last shot to win the game.  An unbelievable contest would end in incredible fashion, with UK freshman Anthony Davis blocking a nearly unblockable shot by 6’11” John Henson to secure the victory.  The game was so good it inspired tremendous praise from college basketball writers.  Consider the following heaps of praise:

“With all due respect to the other 342 Division I fan bases out there, who wouldn’t want to see this one again” (in reference to a potential NCAA tournament matchup).  If it never happens, though, at least college basketball fans will always have Saturday’s game etched into their memories.”   –Jason King, ESPN

“It (the game) lived up to the talent, and all the hype that accompanied it–no game this season has been played at such a high level and with such entertainment value to boot.”  –Eamonn Brennan, ESPN

“It’s not every day they play in such a frenetic, close, classic game more worthy of April’s opening weekend than a nonconference tune-up in early December.”  –Robbi Pickeral, ESPN

“The calendar said December 3, but it felt like March. Actually, it felt like April. And if the basketball gods are kind, that’s when North Carolina and Kentucky will meet again.”  –Seth Davis, SI.com

“Both teams played well, showing why they’re ranked in the top five and why the arena was jammed with NBA scouts and general managers. Neither team buckled when the other hit it with runs.”  –Pat Forde, Yahoo Sports

There are many more excerpts to be taken from various writers caught up in the awesome scene played out in Rupp Arena on Saturday, but you get the point.  This was as good as it gets when it comes to two elite teams squaring off in December.  One would think that a matchup with arguably the two greatest college basketball programs of all-time, Kentucky and North Carolina, clearly producing a memorable outcome of the ages would warrant some national attention on Monday, particularly the radio airwaves full of sports jock talk.  At least I would expect some coverage.  Wouldn’t you??  So I went to bed on Sunday night excited about some sports talk the next day covering the big game.

If you don’t listen to ESPN Radio much, here is what you typically deal with on a daily (weekday) basis.  You have three popular national shows throughout the day.  Between 6 and 10 am you get “Mike and Mike in the Morning,” hosted by Mike Greenburg and former NFLer Mike Golic.  As a longtime listener of this show I can tell you two things in general: 1.) they are like an old married couple and 2.) they really like NFL football.  I have no qualms with NFL football, but being a college sports fan first I typically look forward to the late morning/afternoon coverage on ESPN Radio.  At 10 am the polarizing Colin Cowherd takes the airwaves until 1 pm.  His show is considered to be a bit more controversial, coming closer to whatever “shock talk” is than what you get from Mike and Mike.  I happen to love Cowherd’s show, and he tends to mix more college discussion in than Mike and Mike.  Finally from 1 to 4 pm you get The Scott Van Pelt show, where you can hear the popular Sportscenter anchorman’s opinions along with his permanent sidekick Ryan Russillo.  Van Pelt is a Maryland graduate with a shameless passion for college football, and an almost kid-like fun interest in college basketball, so it is this show that I tend to enjoy most for its college sports coverage.  I realize the coverage of sports changes appropriately depending on the seasons (for instance, all three shows will discuss college basketball at length during the NCAA Tournament in March) but pound for pound that is how I would describe each show’s general priorities of sports action.

I turned my dial to ESPN 760 at about 7:30 this morning taking that general mentality of each show into mind.  That meant that I thought maybe Mike and Mike might get to college basketball in their last hour, knowing that they would talk about Tim Tebow, the Cowboys and other NFL action for most of their show.  I understood that NFL playoff races are in full swing, and that appropriate coverage would be set aside for this.  But I also felt that a thrilling contest ending in fantastic fashion that had the college basketball world celebrating (especially a game highly anticipated and between traditional powers like Kentucky and North Carolina) would generate at least a quick 5 minute discussion.  Nope.  Fear not though, I told myself, because Cowherd and Van Pelt are still to come.

Nope and Nope.

Ten straight hours of me listening to ESPN Radio, waiting patiently throughout the day knowing that college sports coverage generally increases as the day progessess and……yeah, no.  Nothing.  Not even Scott Van Pelt, a huge college supporter, made time for it.

This of course brings me to my point and my humbling conclusion.  Two college basketball powers can play in December, long before the NCAA Tournament begins, and produce a game that EXCEEDS its incredible hype, only to see the national radio media completely look the other way in favor of football.  As I said, I understand the situation….NFL deserves the majority of discussion, as well as college football, considering the BCS rankings and bowl pairings, including the national championship game, were announced.  That’s a big morning that requires a ton of commentary with various guests.  I get it.  But in ten hours of coverage not one time was the game between UNC and Kentucky mentioned.  Not even in passing.  Not even a “Wow, great game on Saturday in college basketball, wish we had time to discuss it more but…”  Not even that.  It didn’t even show up as a dust particle on the radar.

The perspective I’m trying to share is this: If December in basketball is to September in football (meaning these are the months when each sport’s season are just underway) we would still be inundated with NFL football talk in September by these same radio shows.  But the same early season coverage is virtually unimportant in basketball.  It was a bold reminder that NFL (and college to a lesser extent) is king in this land.  And no matter how compelling a college basketball game is in December it’s going to get buried under the latest developments in football.

Maybe I should stick to television.  Both “Around the Horn” and “PTI,” two afternoon ESPN sports shows, discussed the basketball game.

It only took me 12 hours to find it.

 

How much would you pay to see UNC @ Kentucky?

Let’s hear it.  How much cash would you fork out for a seat inside Rupp Arena for December’s North Carolina vs Kentucky showdown???

Which game storyline between North Carolina and Kentucky do you find most interesting?

Discussing Pat Forde’s Top Programs List

In a blog earlier today I updated the list of all-time greatest programs by re-calculating a formula used by Street and Smith’s magazine in 2005. The pecking order at the top did not change with Kentucky, UCLA, North Carolina and Kansas ranked 1-4, respectively. However as expected UCLA, UNC and KU all closed the gap on Kentucky in the past five seasons.

I was inspired to update this formula after reading the latest edition of “Forde Minutes” on ESPN.com, written by Pat Forde. He mentioned that it is his belief that the greatest programs are in this order: 1. UCLA, 2. North Carolina, and 3. Kentucky. He made the same assertion in October last year, and provided his reasonings to justify his beliefs.

I think a good exercise is to take one man’s formula (Street and Smith’s) and compare it to one man’s opinion (Pat Forde) to offer a balanced debate.  From reading Forde’s article there seems to be three key reasons that Forde prefers UCLA instead of Kentucky (he singles out UK before making his list) as the greatest program: 1.) National Titles, 2.) Kentucky’s excessive NCAA violations and 3.) Kentucky playing in an all-white league while others blended in african-americans (and thus sturdier competition) quicker.  The following are adjustments that would need to be made to Street and Smith’s formula to support Forde’s beliefs:

National Titles: If you raised the Street and Smith’s national championships multiplication factor from x25 to x50 this would allow UCLA to pick up 200 points and draw even with the Wildcats.  In this scenario final fours would be worth (x14), championship game appearances would be worth (x16) and a national title would be (x50).  The question then is this: do you think a national title is 34 times more important than a championship game appearance?

NCAA Violations: Forde dedicates a paragraph to Kentucky’s history with NCAA violations and/or probations.  However, Forde also wrote an article a few years ago discussing all of the top program’s rap sheets.  From this we learn that UCLA is credited with three major infractions, while Kentucky has four.  If emotions are removed (i.e, one is a “scandal” where another is just an “infraction”) three and four are not all that different, albeit we should certainly credit UCLA for having one less.  One could argue, however, that no programs guts have been spilled out for everyone to look at quite like Kentucky, while additional UCLA violations are possibly hiding in the weeds.  Consider the following quote made by UCLA’s greatest champion, Bill Walton, during UCLA’s dynasty years (source: Adrien Wojnarowski): “UCLA players were so well taken care of — far beyond the ground rules of the NCAA — that even players from poor backgrounds never left UCLA prematurely (for pro basketball) during John Wooden’s championship years,” Walton said. “If the UCLA teams of the late 1960s and early 1970s were subjected to the kind of scrutiny Jerry Tarkanian and his players have been, UCLA would probably have to forfeit about eight national championships and be on probation for the next 100 years.”  Forde wrote this off as “anecdotal.”  Dan Wetzel offered this depiction of UCLA’s golden era.  In light of mounting evidence that UCLA (not Wooden himself, but booster Sam Gilbert) provided the school with top recruits and caretaking, how should this information be factored into the greatest programs discussion?  Potential violations aside, let’s use what we currently know–UCLA has three infractions and Kentucky has four.  Street and Smith’s multiplied infractions by three in their formula.  Thus, Kentucky was deducted 12 points for violations.  UCLA 9.  North Carolina 3.  For UCLA to pass Kentucky in total points, based on a formula of 14 categories, NCAA infractions would have to be multiplied by slightly more than 300.  So the question is this: Would you support multiplying infractions by 300 while valuing national titles at a multiplication of 25?  How important are infractions in the game?

Integration of black athletes: Pat Forde’s quote on this subject: “Kentucky also thrived for decades in an all-white league while African-Americans were taking over the game elsewhere. It’s probably not coincidence that Adolph Rupp’s long era of domination started waning as black players began to make their impact on the sport in the late 1950s and 1960s. Rupp’s last national title came in 1958, and his last Final Four ended in defeat in the famous game against all-black Texas Western in 1966.” This argument is a worthy one for sure, but how about quantifying the impact?  Why not take these three programs, calculate the minutes played by african americans from World War II to 1970 (I chose World War II because of Jackie Robinson’s presence at UCLA at that time), and assess the overall factor that integration played during the time period?  A quick google search shows that Maryland in 1965 was the first ACC program to play an african american, so any analysis of integration separating UNC from UK is trivial considering UK recruited several black players from the mid 1960’s onward until finally signing Tom Payne in 1969.  Perhaps the impact of black players for UCLA and their opponents is significant, but we have no way of measuring that at this time.  So the question is: what do you need to see to satisfy your own curiosity of the impact integration played in the history of these three programs?  There is no doubt UCLA should be commended for their leadership on this issue.

With a formula, a sportswriter’s opinion and my research to bring them together–do you have enough to pick the greatest program ever?

Re-calculating Street and Smith’s Top Programs

In 2005, Street and Smith’s produced a special magazine publication entitled “Greatest College Basketball Programs of All Time.” The 160 page tribute was a comprehensive evaluation of the games best programs, with at least one full page dedicated to the history of each team. To eliminate bias as much as possible a formula was created to mathematically calculate the winner and rank the teams 1-100. The evaluators felt some categories carried more importance (or weight) than others, and so some categorical values were multiplied by a specific factor to account for this rational. The following 14 categories were used in their analysis (with multiplication factor for that category in parentheses): NCAA Tournament Appearances (x10), NCAA Tournament Wins (x4), NCAA Final Fours (x14), NCAA Tournament Finals (x16), NCAA Championships (x25), NIT Tournament Championships (x10), Conference Championships (x12), Conference Tournament Championships (x6), Independent Champs (x6), All-Time Win-Loss Percentage (x40), Graduation Rate (x40), NCAA Infractions (x3), 1st round draft picks (x1), Mascot Ferocity (x1).

Some key notes to the formula: The last two categories, draft picks and mascot ferocity, are of little importance when trying to establish college’s best programs and thus received a multiplication factor of one to show for it. For mascot ferocity the team consulted with zoologists and other experts to grade a program on a scale of minus-5 to plus-5 (for example, Wildcats and Bruins received plus 5, while Hoosiers, Blue Devils and Tar Heels received 1, 2 and -3, respectively). Win-Loss and graduation rates were expressed as a percentage and were thus multiplied by 40 to amass points. Graduation rates were determined during a four year consecutive span in the mid-90’s, and thus do not represent today’s graduation rates for each program. Finally, independent champs apply to very few programs since almost all are associated with a conference. Thus, a value of zero was the norm and was in fact the case for all programs ranked in the Top 10.

Under all of these circumstances here were the results of the Top 6 programs (total points in parentheses):

1. Kentucky (2024.54)
2. UCLA (1711.20)
3. North Carolina (1601.90)
4. Kansas (1528.60)
5. Duke (1427.90)
6. Indiana (1124.50)

I stopped here because most college basketball fans recognize a “Big 6” in college basketball, which this formula verifies.

Duke, Kentucky and Indiana have done little to enhance their stature in these rankings in the past five years. However North Carolina, Kansas and UCLA have excelled. The purpose of this post is to update these rankings to assess today’s top 6, although I chose to leave Duke and Indiana out of this equation for their lack of tournament prowess in this timeframe. How much have UNC, UCLA and KU caught up to Kentucky? Thus, we take a look at the Top 4 and update their rankings.

Today’s Top 4 would look like this: *sidenote: I assigned a graduation rate of 0.5 for each program simply because the era of 1 and done (or 2 and done) players has taken it’s toll on each program (Xavier Henry, John Wall, DeMarcus Cousins, Ray Felton, Sean May, Kevin Love………). Let’s just draw equal straws here and call it even.

1. Kentucky 2,190.40
2. UCLA 1,989.88
3. North Carolina 1,929.44
4. Kansas 1,755.84

The order of the Top 4 programs did not change. However UCLA, UNC and KU all gained at least 220 points in the past five years, while Kentucky only gained just more than 160. In 2005, UCLA was ranked behind Kentucky by more than 300 points, but now sits a mere 200 points behind the Wildcats. North Carolina gained about 20 points on UCLA thanks to two NCAA championships. Kansas, while on an impressive run in recent years, still sits in a distance fourth place due mostly to a lower total of NCAA championships (3) and tournament wins (84 compared 99, 100 and 102 for the other three).

In my next post I will take a look at Pat Forde’s (ESPN) take on his top three programs and use this formula to discuss and debate.

Ranking next week’s Rivalry Week games

ESPN brings us Rivalry Week next week, the annual week-long event showcasing some of our favorite in-conference showdowns.  Some years the Duke/Carolina tussle is worth the hype, and some years the attention deserves to be squarely on another dynamic rivalry.  Based on what we’ve seen this year, with some additional factors in play, I have decided to rank the following seven ESPN televised rivalry games in order of least intriguing to “can’t miss.”  Really, none are worth missing, but you know what I mean.  Someone has to dwell in the cellar when rankings are involved.

7.) UConn @ Syracuse (Wednesday, 7 pm, ESPN)–This is normally a titanic matchup but UConn’s struggles are well-documented this year.  Two different circumstances would make this much higher on this list.  1.) UConn coach Jim Calhoun back on the sidelines (he might be back, but it’s still unlikely) and 2.) the game being in Storrs, Connecticut instead of Syracuse.  If this were a home game for UConn it would give the casual viewer of this rivalry (myself) more reason to tune in and see if the home crowd could carry UConn to victory.  As it is now though this is all set up for Syracuse to continue their assault on the Big East.

6.) Tennessee @ Vanderbilt (Tuesday, 7 pm, ESPN)–Most people around the country probably don’t realize A.) that the state of Tennessee actually really likes basketball (UT women…) and B.) Vanderbilt, particularly, takes their basketball team seriously.  Vanderbilt is currently tied with Kentucky for 1st place in the East, and Tennessee is just one game back.  While some of the other rivalries on this list are out of state, this rivalry is an intrastate bragging rights battle.  The heat in this rivalry has been cranked up since Bruce Pearl and Kevin Stallings began squaring off against one another.  Let’s see if UT can dust off Memorial’s Magic.

5.) Duke @ North Carolina (Wednesday, 9pm, ESPN)–A Duke or North Carolina fan will probably try to sell you “this is why it’s the best rivalry” no matter what happens in this contest next week.  But on paper here is what this rivalry is this season: A second-tier Duke team facing a below vintage North Carolina team (that was nice on my part).  You will have to watch this game with one earplug in to keep yourself from believing that the winner of this game will use it to fuel a late-season charge towards the national championship.  But, with all my caveats said, this is a rivalry game worth watching to see if a near lifeless UNC squad can play with an intensity that has so far lacked this season.  You can bet the UNC fanbase is hoping this is the game that rallies all their talent.  If Carolina pulls it out in dramatic fashion UNC will remember this game in a way in which Duke views the Jeff Capel memories of 1995–so that in itself creates a nice storyline for the game.

4.) Purdue @ Michigan State (Tuesday, 9pm, ESPN)–Purdue is dominated with experience in the starting lineup, so nerves in hostile territory do not apply here–one reason this should be an excellent game.  The Breslin Center is one of america’s best venues, so the “Izzone” student section will no doubt be rocking.  You have to expect this veteran Purdue squad to be licking their chops to tackle the beast that is Sparty in East Lansing, and thus cut into MSU’s lead in the Big 10 standings.  There is plenty of motivation for Purdue, and time is running out to make a move to the top of the standings.  The one drawback to this game is the potential absence of MSU point guard Kalin Lucas, but news out of Lansing this morning is that his ankle injury is not serious and he may even play this weekend.  That sounds pretty good for his chances to play in this rivalry game Tuesday night.  The Big 10 offers up low-scoring games far too often, but a Purdue/MSU matchup is still very much a marquee attraction.

3.) Kansas @ Texas (Monday, 9pm, ESPN)–Reason #1 to watch this game?  How about because both teams have been ranked #1 this season and both teams have been on the short-list as national championship contenders all season long.  Texas’ recent “slump,” losing three out four games, kept this from being a bit higher.  What Texas team are we going to see?  Still, there is plenty of NBA talent on the floor in this one and if Texas has any hope of winning the Big 12 this is a must win game.  With a Kansas win the Jayhawks will have a stranglehold on the #1 national ranking and make it clear that they are the team to beat in the NCAA tournament.  We should expect to see lots of intensity in this game….from players and fans.

2.)  Tennessee @ Kentucky (College Gameday) (Saturday, 9pm, ESPN)–Kentucky sold out all available tickets for the Gameday event nearly two weeks ago.  Tennessee may not care though.  This is the same program that has finished ahead of Kentucky in the Eastern division for four straight years.  It seems that when you put John Wall, Eric Bledsoe and DeMarcus Cousins on the national stage they do something special.  They play better.  So it will be interesting to see if the highlight reel plays are once again on display when the lights shine bright on Rupp Arena.  You can’t watch Kentucky and not feel like you’re watching a college version of the Laker’s “showtime” era.  At any moment a freakish athletic feat could invade your television screen.  With the division lead possibly on the line, and ghosts of SEC East past in need of slaying, this game should needle past insanity on the crowd decibel meter.

1.)  Villanova @ West Virginia (Monday, 7pm, ESPN)–The first game of the Rivalry Week lineup is my vote for game of the week.  Which is the nation’s best basketball conference?  The Big East.  Which teams sit atop the Big East standings?  Villanova is perfect at 9-0, while West Virginia is 7-2.  If Villanova can keep from being hit with batteries or lead-weighted frisbies, this has all the makings of a great rivalry game.  Seriously WVU fans, control yourselves.  It’s embarassing.  Outside of fan madness and standings within the conference, I am interested in this game for one real reason: just how good is Villanova?  At the midway point of the college season we have identified four teams that would easily warrant the four number one seeds in the NCAA tournament if it started today: Kansas, Syracuse, Villanova and Kentucky.  That really isn’t debatable.  I’ve heard and seen much more about the other three than I have Villanova, who is quietly pasting people while flying at least a little bit under the “stud” radar.  I want to know if the Wildcats can go into the heart of the West Virginia mountains, face an unruly (and semi-moronic) WVU crowd, and come out of the game pooping gold.  We will all have an idea of how lethal Villanova is on Monday night!

Best crowds so far this year

Watching the Alabama/Tennessee game tonight I am reminded that not all crowds are created the same.  I am seeing lots of empties in the lower level, so I hesitate to wonder what the upper level may look like.  49ways is texting me from the Georgia Tech/Clemson game and he reports a similar scene of empty seats with the game already underway.  It’s a reminder that we should be thankful for those nights when you finish watching a game and say “damn, does it get any better than that?!”  Last night’s high octane Kansas State crowd inspired me to blog about the best crowds I’ve seen so far this year.

Texas @ Kansas State–I think anybody who watched this with me knows exactly what I’m talking about.  The only thing missing from the student section were semi-enclosing rails and cell blocks, like the ones used to subdue AC/DC’s fans in the music video for Thunderstruck.  Nothing makes people go completely nuts like the chance to knock off number 1, and I had the distinct feeling from the opening tip that this was the night number one was going down.  There are games where the fans help you win.  And then there are games where the fans won’t let you lose.  Last night the latter crowd showed up.  The “We Own Tex-as!” chant in unison was the icing on the cake!

North Carolina @ Kentucky–There was an understandably nervous, one-foot-in-the-water, how-good-are-these-freshman UK crowd packed in Rupp against the defending champs for what could have been a season-altering win or a another disappointing loss for a fanbase desperately seeking the national spotlight once again.  When John Wall sped up court on a Secretariat-like blitz–and dunked the ball two handed while breaking Larry Drew’s ankles–it was like an entire decade of forgettable tournament basketball was lifted off the foundation of the building.  From that point forward Rupp Arena was the venue it has become renowned for, and the crowd carried the home team on a 28-2 knockout run that the visiting Tarheels would never overcome.  Nothing spells doom for an opponent like 24,500 rabid fans united by a breathtaking display of athleticism.

Kansas @ Tennessee–You can virtually cut and paste my paragraph from the Kansas State/Texas game in this slot.  Again, NOTHING brings out an opposing fanbase like the opportunity to defeat the number one ranked team in the country.  Tennessee fans may have been feeling even more optimistic considering Kansas had struggled to beat Cornell in Lawrence just a few days before.  The real story to this crowd, however, was the belief that gradually mounted through the course of the game when the fans were attune to the fact that their 6 scholarship players and three walk-ons were battling toe-to-toe with the loaded Jayhawks.  Think about that from the Tennessee fan’s perspective.  Not only are you amped up b/c #1 is in town, but now it’s late in the second half and you’re in disbelief that some kid named Skylar McBee is hitting HORSE shots as the shotclock nears zero.  Bedlam is the word to describe these moments.

Kentucky vs Connecticut–If the other games had the feel of the underdog trying to scream their team to victory, this one was more like the buzz you hear during a meaningful heavyweight title fight.  UConn fans consider Madison Square Garden a home away from home.  But because UConn and Kentucky NEVER play each other Connecticut fans could not have known that Kentucky fans consider every neutral venue a home away from home!  One UConn fan said he could not believe the number of Kentucky fans in New York for this game.  With a split crowd the scene was set for one fanbase to upstage the other.  UConn got it started with a Let’s Go U-Conn chant, in which Kentucky replied with an emphatic GO BIG BLUE!  All of this was during the Georgia/St. John’s contest that was taking place prior to the main event.  In typical MSG fashion the game did not disappoint with Kentucky’s star freshman John Wall saving his best for last–an and-1 to seal the victory with seconds remaining.  Every year, early in the season, college basketball fans are treated to a game that makes you say “that was an NCAA tournament game.”  That was this game.

Countdown to Madness #6

It’s possible there has never been a better time for the “Big 6” basketball schools to start the college basketball season.  Currently in football UCLA, Kentucky, North Carolina, Duke, Kansas and Indiana are a combined 2-10 in conference games, and who would have actually guessed Duke would account for one of those wins?  Kansas has the other win, and sits 5-0 overall, but trouncing marginal teams doesn’t get you national attention.  College football fans will find out soon if Kansas is legit with ranked Nebraska, Texas and Oklahoma all looming.

There’s no way around it, the Big 6 play basketball.  Usually very well.  Looking at the upcoming season basketball gurus are making Kansas the favorite, with Kentucky the trendy pick to crash the final four with a new coach and stud recruits.  North Carolina has a stable of young colts ready to go, and they also make several pundits pre-season final four list.  Duke may finally hit it big again on the national stage with Kyle Singler anchoring an experienced roster.  UCLA expects to get back in the final four conversation, and with Ben Howland they’ll always be looming.  Indiana is the longshot here, but it’s only year two under Tom Crean and he’s already made his impact on the recruiting trail.  When the rest of the nation steps up and challenges the big boys, the big boys typically bounce back.  Expect great things from the old guard in college basketball this season.

Preview: UNC vs Gonzaga

Teams: 1 UNC (30-4) vs 4 Gonzaga (28-5)

How they got here:
UNC defeated Radford 101-58 and LSU 84-70
Gonzaga defeated Akron 77-64 and Western Kentucky 83-81

Who I like: Gonzaga

Why I like Gonzaga: This is arguably one of Mark Few’s best Gonzaga clubs. They have offense, they have defense, a great point guard in Jeremy Pargo, a fearless big man in Josh Heytvelt, and everything else in between. They’ve had to work hard in this year’s tournament, but they’re riding an 11-game winning streak. Prior to the tournament, they were tied for first with UNC in scoring margin but now are third. I keep going back to their loss to Connecticut in December, and something tells me that that loss made them a little tougher. And lets not forget the Zags beat #2 UNC on a neutral court in 2006, perhaps lending them a slight mental edge. If Ty Lawson can’t go full speed, Gonzaga will take advantage of that.

How North Carolina can win: Well, Carolina can certainly win this game because they’re just an awesome team – I just think Gonzaga can beat them. UNC needs to be UNC. Get out in transition, give it to Hansbrough early and let him go to work. If he gets Heytvelt in foul trouble, the Tar Heels will have a huge advantage because Gonzaga doesn’t have anyone who can body him up. One thing you may have heard all year is that Carolina doesn’t play defense. This is true, but if they can put together some solid stops at crucial moments, they will be victorious.

ESPN and the Duke/UNC connection

We all love ESPN. We can’t live without it. They know that, and that’s why they have 800 or so stations to maintain their stranglehold on the sports broadcasting business. So here comes the but.  BUT…and I hope you’re reading this ESPN (you’re not), can you please ease up on shoving Duke and North Carolina down our throats???

I can’t turn on ESPN during a weekly basketball telecast and not have, 75% of the time, a combination of either Hubert Davis, Jay Williams, and Jay Bilas staring me down to bring me college basketball.  Davis played for UNC.  Williams and Bilas played for Duke.  Williams gets a bit less airtime than Davis and Bilas, who between the two of them cover everything from half times to college gameday on Saturday’s to appearances on PTI and every other ESPN show.  Not to mention announcing games.  Don’t get me wrong, Bilas and Davis are capable analysts.  I’m not here to argue whether or not they are competent with their jobs.  It’s just that the rest of the nation likes basketball too, and the nation on the whole, at least the people I have talked to about this, agree that it’s just too much Duke and North Carolina in your face all the time. 

There are 346 Division One basketball schools.  Over the years I’m guessing thousands of capable, articulate, entertaining and charismatic young men or women have come through the college basketball system.  I would suppose hundreds of these former players and/or coaches would love to make ESPN pay and bring basketball to life for people across this country.  Yet somehow, conveniently, ESPN landed on a college basketball team that often winds up being the host, Rece Davis, with his sidekicks from Duke and North Carolina.  Take tonight for example.  I’m watching Auburn play Alabama and it’s Hubert Davis and Jay Williams covering the halftime analysis.  Two employees.  Two members of the Duke/North Carolina tree of life.  Hundreds of choices to choose from.

About 15 years ago I remember watching an episode of the Dennis Miller Live show on HBO.  The guest that night was comedian Robert Wuhl (of Arli$$ fame).  Wuhl made a hilarious joke, regarding Superbowl hype, that the hype for next year’s superbowl would start in two weeks (this was right after the conclusion of an NFL season).  To me, ESPN is toeing a similar line with it’s current treatment of the Duke/North Carolina rivalry.  You would think these teams have one-point games every time they meet but in reality most games in recent years have been decided prior to the last couple of minutes.  It doesn’t mean it’s not a great rivalry.  And it doesn’t mean it’s not the best rivalry.  It just means that anytime you beat something to death in life, no matter what it is, it eventually gets old. 

North Carolina and Duke meet this weekend in Chapel Hill.  Somewhere Robert Wuhl is laughing with me.

Duke/North Carolina

Just caught most of the Duke/UNC game (and all of the second half)  on an ESPNU replay.  The result really wasn’t much of a surprise.  Duke played with great effort and rode the home crowd to lead at half and the early going of the second half, but UNC just outplayed them down the stretch.  Ellington picked up the pace and hit outside jumpers, and as documented by numerous media outlets Ty Lawson completely dominated the second half.  Outside of a delusional Duke fan nobody would give Greg Paulus a chance against Lawson.  As Carolina pulled away, and stretched the lead to nine, the backbreaker happened.  With the shotclock winding down Hansbrough, well-defended, drained a big three.  It was a sweet shot from the big man.  The Carolina bench exploded in euphoria….the game was pretty much over.  Carolina led by 12 and of course held on.

Has Duke peaked?  When you look at their body of work they played a very tough non-conference schedule, as usual, and came away with some impressive wins: Michigan, @ Purdue, Xavier and Davidson.  In addition they toppled Georgetown during a break in ACC action just three weeks ago.  But I bring up the Georgetown win for a reason.  It’s a little bit of fool’s gold.  We all know about Georgetown’s recent struggles having lost 6 of their last 7.  Counting Georgetown as a quality win these days is about like saying sitting in the same room with Angelina Jolie means she likes you.  Wishful thinking.  In their last five games Duke is 2-3.  They lost a tough game to Wake on the road, which is nothing to jump off roofs over.  Following a beatdown of a horrible Virginia team in Cameron they got throttled by Clemson, embarassingly, and held on to an overtime win over Miami FL before they, as horseracing handicappers would say, faded down the stretch against North Carolina.  In four recent marquee games, Duke has lost three and they haven’t really looked like a top 15 team in the process.  Am I wrong?