Breakdown: Power Conference Strength of Schedule

Here is a graph displaying the average strengths of schedule (SOS) of the Big 6 power conferences to date. Individual team SOS for teams within each conference were cumulated and then divided by the total number of teams in the conference.

Some obversations and thoughts:

–I’m a bit surprised that the Big 10 SOS is not better.  They already played the ACC in the ACC/Big 10 challenge, which no doubt improved the league SOS as a whole.  What this suggests is that outside of that challenge the Big 10 has pound-for-pound played weaker competition than perhaps any conference outside the Big 12.
–Vanderbilt of the SEC has the best SOS as of December 8th–26. Georgetown of the Big East has the worst–335. (Georgetown improved with the Butler game last night, however).
–I couldn’t help but notice a bad trend from the Arkansas Razorbacks. Not only was their SOS #329, but they have a 4-5 overall record. At present, their sagarin ranking is #200, one spot ahead of Arkansas- Little Rock and only 6 spots in front of Arkansas State. Yikes.
–Say what you want about the Duke Blue Devils, but they are yet again high up in both the sagarin rankings (#1) and SOS (#29). They are 7-1 to start the season and on the short list of title contenders. Should be a good year for Duke.
–The Big 12 conference has the worst SOS to this point. Kansas and Texas are two of the best teams in the country, but their leaders should get this conference to play some people. With the Big East and SEC set to play in the Big East/SEC challenge this week, it’s going to put the Big 12 further behind.

Game Notes: Kentucky vs Stanford, Cancun Challenge Finals

Kentucky pulled out an overtime win over Stanford in the Cancun Challenge Finals tonight, winning 83-75.  Some game notes:

1st Half
–Patterson picked up two early fouls and was sent to the bench. He was a non-factor this half.
–Stanford has been really good executing set plays. They took advantage of the under 12:00 timeout, coming out with a play that easily scored a layup, and from that point on the tempo swung Stanford’s way. Credit head coach Johnny Dawkins with getting his team to execute. From that timeout Stanford took what was an 8 point deficit all the way to a halftime lead.
–Kentucky’s John Wall was unguardable in this half. He hit a jumper, hit free throws, hit a 3 ball, and penetrated the lane often. If he didn’t get fouled shooting in the lane, he forced the defense to collapse and then kicked out, which created great ball movement and open shots on at least two occasions. He really is a game changer. Despite Wall’s presence, however, Stanford was able to control the tempo and minimize Wall’s total effect this half.
–Landry Fields for Stanford is a baller. He’s hitting a variety of shots and is a matchup problem for Kentucky right now.

2nd Half
–Stanford is continuing to control this tempo. Stanford wants halfcourt sets, clock control. Kentucky wants to push the ball. Stanford is winning this battle of wills and still has the lead.
–The shotclock is messed up, so play is stopped. I’m watching the UK team huddle around Coach Calapari, and can’t help but notice that assistant coach Rod Strickland isn’t talking–nor does he seem interested in talking to anyone. Now that I think about it, I’ve never seen him talk! They show him every game, at some point, and he’s just got the same cool expression on his face. Does he talk? Anybody? I’m only teasing him….(but does he talk, seriously?)!
–After the 8:00 timeout Kentucky is getting what they want. They reversed roles with Stanford. A nice set play out of the timeout led to a tempo change with Kentucky taking the lead for the first time this half. This game has been really fun to watch. Two different styles, both teams executing at times. I think one of the announcers mentioned this too. It’s a hard fought game.
–Kentucky freshman DeMarcus Cousins has made some poor decisions down the stretch. It started with Stanford begging him to take an open three pointer (they sagged off him considerably) and he finally took the bait. BRICK. Not a good time to test your outside game. Moments later he was out of control in the lane and called for an offensive foul. Finally, with 10 seconds left in the game and two free throws needed to tie the game, the freshman missed the first and then missed the second on purpose to try and get his own rebound. In the process, he was called for an offensive foul going over the back of a Stanford player. Calapari was not pleased. He presumably wanted Cousins to try and MAKE the second free throw to cut the lead to one…there were still 10 seconds remaining. This is a good lesson for the big man early in the year. In the end Stanford would miss both free throws to seal the game, while John Wall would be fouled, make both free throws, and send the game to overtime.
–Kentucky senior Ramon Harris was solid in overtime. Calapari has given him minutes because of his defensive presence and blue collar effort. With two of Stanford’s big men fouled out, Harris took advantage and got his hands on some critical rebounds. Good game from the Kentucky senior.

Kentucky escaped tonight, but you have to give them credit for losing control of the tempo of this game yet still finding a way to pull it out in the end. I came away very impressed with Stanford tonight, particularly guard/forward Landry Fields. He reminded me tonight of the west coast version of Ohio State’s Evan Turner. He’s a complete player. He has a real nice shot–he drained outside shots and displayed a nice touch on his mid range game–and was unguardable in the first half. He rebounded very well, and showed good decision making when passing. He seems like a legit all-conference guy in the Pac-10. As for Kentucky this is just another game where they have plenty of mistakes to be corrected–but at least they do it in a win. They are showing some resolve early in the season, but they are far from a polished product. Stanford presented a trio of bigs that could bang and hang with Kentucky’s frontcourt, so this is a nice stepping stone for the youthful Wildcats to gauge where they stand on both sides of the ball.

Cal State Fullerton Stuns UCLA In Double Overtime

By now you’ve heard about Cal State Fullerton’s double overtime victory over UCLA, 68-65, at Pauley Pavilion last night.  I’m not writing to talk about how it happened or how this game is a huge shocker.  What I wanted to show was a dunk by Fullerton’s Gerard Anderson that was, as Sawdog put it, Latrell Sprewell-esque.  It was quite nasty!  I couldn’t find the dunk alone, but it’s among the other highlights in the video below.  Brace yourself at around 1:21.

California To Make A Run

Jerome Randle will be key for California this year.

At the end of each season, I evaluate team’s rosters to see who they have coming back and to think about their potential for the following season.  The California Golden Bears are one of several teams that stuck out in my mind to have a nice season for 2009-10.  Second year coach Mike Montgomery did a tremendous job last year, finishing 22-11 and taking the Bears to the NCAA Tournament.  With loads of talent returning and a roster full of key seniors, Montgomery will have no problem going further than the first round.

It all starts with point guard Jerome Randle.  As a junior, he averaged over 18 points and 5 assists.  He is also California’s career leader in free throw percentage.  A bit on the small side, Randle has blazing quickness and can score in a variety of ways.  I really don’t know what the strongest part of his game is.  He has range from deep (46.3% 3fg), he can penetrate on anyone, and if he doesn’t score, he’s going to the line or dishing it off.  And I like his attitude – very confident on the court.

I read in Athlon Sports Magazine that California returns everyone who contributed to their 210 made 3-point baskets a year ago.  And to top it off, they lead the nation in 3-point percentage at 42.7%.  We know Randle can drain, but so can senior guard Patrick Christopher (35.8% 3fg) and senior forward Theo Robertson (48.7% 3fg).  These three will terrorize opponents in transition and the half court setting.  Christopher flirted with NBA but wisely decided to return to school, and Robertson is a tough player who doesn’t mind mixing it up with anyone.

The rest of the California roster is full of guys who are perfect role players.  Jamal Boykin is a 6’8″ senior power forward who will get plenty of garbage buckets and is a wonderful rebounder.  His leadership in the paint will be key for Cal this year.  Jorge Gutierrez is a shorter version of Eduardo Najera.  This guy is relentless on the defensive side of the ball and will be the spark off the bench for Montgomery.  With the departure of center Jordan Wilkes, that burden falls on juco transfer, Markhuri Sanders-Frison.  He may a bit undersized in terms of height (6’8″), but at 265 pounds, he’ll be a much welcomed block of muscle down low for the Bears.  An interesting player to watch will be 7’3″ sophomore Max Zhang.  The Chinese import actually looked pretty good in Cal’s win over Detroit Wednesday night.  He’ll be hard to keep away from the offensive glass.

Brandon Smith, a freshman point guard, will provide back up minutes for Randle.  He’s super quick and has good handles.  He’ll play a crucial role for the Bears this year, especially if Randle ever gets in foul trouble.  Senior Nikola Knezevic will provide back up minutes in the back court, and Omondi Amoke is an active player who can play either forward position.  Bak Bak, a native of Sudan, is a 6’10” freshman who will be a project.

There is no doubt Mike Montgomery has brought his NBA experience to Berkeley.  Cool as ice on the bench, he has taught his players the art of the fast break quite well.  It was beautiful to watch.  Randle sprints with the ball to the top of the key while slowing down to weigh his options; the wingmen fill the sidelines looking for a pass to the rim, or depending on the defense, they may fade to the corner ready for the 3 ball.  And of course there is either a man already in the paint, or someone trailing.  Truly a nice fast break.  Montgomery also employs a terrific half court offense.  It is motion-based with designated screeners.  Check out their floor spacing and ball movement – two fundamentals clearly taken directly from the best NBA teams.

I have high expectations for the California Golden Bears this year.  I predict that they’ll win the PAC 10 regular season title in a close race with Washington.  Despite question marks in the low post, their guard play and three-point attack will win them plenty of games.  And with senior leadership and solid role players, they should make a splash come mid to late March.

Game Notes: Washington @ UCLA

I am currently catching a replay of the Pac-10 leading Washington Huskies taking on UCLA in Pauley Pavilion. Here are some game notes and observations:

–If I was choosing players for a pick-up game Washington’s Jon Brockman is my first choice. No question. He looks like a rebounding machine, and then he starts playing and he IS a rebounding machine. East Coasters are much more familiar with Luke Harangody of Notre Dame. Brockman is a bigger, more powerful version of Harangody. Brockman is so aggressive on the boards his two first half fouls are over the back calls on the offensive end.
–UCLA, NOT UNC, would have been the favorite to cut down the nets this year if Kevin Love had stayed in school. He is the only guy they are missing. UCLA has all the parts except the dominating big man. They have two ridiculous guards in Collison and Jrue Holiday. They have the perfect small forward in Josh Shipp. Dragovic is their mismatch nightmare, a big man that drains three’s. Abola, their closest thing to a true center, would be the absolute perfect complement to Love. UCLA fans must be sick that Love didn’t stick around for one more year. UCLA’s commitment to team defense would have made them the favorite over UNC.
–Speaking of defense, there is lots of it being played at a high level by both teams. Defensive rebounding is good. But it’s the little things that stand out. Things like switching players, trapping, active hands, etc. Both Lorenzo Romar of Washington and Ben Howland of UCLA are getting their guys to play sound basketball.
–Washington has a variety of parts too. They have a lightning quick guard in Isaiah Thomas (he needs to harness some of that speed…a bit out of control). They have a great scoring guard in Justin Dentmon. They have a rock solid big man in Brockman.  Their long and athletic duo of Darnell Gant and Matthew Bryan-Amaning more than suffice while Dentmon, Thomas and Brockman pick up the scoring.  This game, on paper, should be good and thankfully for me it is!
–I still can’t figure out why there are big, blank open spaces behind the baskets, where seats would normally be. I saw a UCLA player chase an errant pass as fast as he could, and like Forrest Gump ran through the endzone and towards the lockerroom, so did this player. There is that much room to slow your beeline. Weird.
–Washington only played eight players in the game. Depth could be a serious issue come tournament time.

UCLA wins the game 85-76, fending off several pesky rallies from Washington throughout the game.  All five UCLA starters score in double figures.  With the win UCLA pulls within a half game of Washington for the Pac-10 lead.  Washington, UCLA, California and Arizona State all have 4 league losses and sit atop the conference.  We have a great finish on our hands for the league champion.

Arizona Wildcats back in the mix

Arizona, amazingly, is back in the hunt for an NCAA tournament bid. Winners of seven straight, Arizona is now 18-8 overall, 8-5 in conference. Included in this winning streak are wins over conference leader Washington to go along with back-to-back wins over the big two from Los Angeles, UCLA and USC. With everything Arizona has had to overcome–Lute Olson leaving as the season started, player transfers, and the adjustment to interim coach Russ Pennell (he was not even the first choice for interim)–it is more than remarkable that they have fought hard to buy into the current coaching staff and forge their way towards the top of the Pac-10.

Arizona not only has a chance to make the NCAA tournament but they can possibly improve their seeding drastically over the next few weeks. They have road games with top conference opponents Arizona State and Washington coming which, depending on how hot Arizona really is, could skyrocket their seeding. In addition a home game with California looms.

Down the stretch these are three marquee games to follow as Arizona State, California and Arizona battle to lock in NCAA bids and improve seed positions in the process.

Arizona State Sweeps UCLA

I only caught a few minutes early in the second half, but here’s what I remember seeing:  bedlam.  Complete insanity from the Arizona State crowd.  It was very loud–consistently loud–and it took me by surprise.  Why?  Last week I read this column by ESPN’s Pat Forde, who labeled Arizona State a non-basketball school.  And he’s right.  As he points out they have only filled their arena to 58% capacity, which is just WAY too low for a team that is in the race for a PAC-10 title, has an all-american and national player of the year candidate in James Harden, and has a coach that is re-shaping the way we think about Arizona State basketball. 

So how did Arizona State’s attendance fair?  Forget the whole “hoping to draw more than 11,000 fans,” as reported by Forde.  The final count says 13, 368.  Wells Fargo Arena holds 14,198.  That’s good enough for 94% capacity.  And 94% capacity was good enough to win the game for Arizona State, who needed every last whoop and scream to pull away from UCLA late in a very close game.  Harden finished with 15 pts, 7 rbs, and 11 assists (he had 8 turnovers…) but he was a pure joy to watch for those few minutes I caught the game.  His game kind of reminds me of Stacey Augmon, probably b/c of the left-handed similarity.  Stacey was just so smooth, but athletic enough to wow you and bring you off your feet.  Harden kind of has the same demeanor, although a bit lower to the ground.  Either way, the kid is extremely diverse and it’s easy to see the pub he’s getting is warranted.   

You can watch ESPN’s post-game wrap-up with Len Elmore to get a feel for the madness Arizona State fans exhibited.  Props to State fans.  Well done.